Oil!!!

                    Current worldwide supply;

About 88.1 Million barrels per day.

Current worldwide demand;

About 89.2 million barrels per day.

(source - http://omrpublic.iea.org/ )

                                                                                                     

(Source  http://www.eia.doe.gov/cabs/Iran/Oil.html )

Iranian production

3.8 million barrels per day.

Unrest--- >

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=olEETyfeoeo

Libya production

1.7 million barrels per day

Unrest--- >

http://www.youtube.com/watch?feature=player_embedded&v=wXsXk2H31fs#at=82

Algeria production

1.3 million barrels per day

Unrest--- >

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0hDR417pV3s

                                                                                                                                                                    

Worldwide production                                       88.1 mbpd

Iran                                                                 -    3.8 mbpd

Libya                                                              -    1.7 mbpd

Algeria                                                            -    1.3 mbpd

                                                                                             

Total                                                               =  81.3 mbpd

Possible supply reduction =   7.7%

                                                                                                             

If demand already exceeds production, by 1.1 mbpd, and Middle east unrest threatens to disrupt supplies by 

another 7.7% or  6.8 mbpd... How does that play out for supply, and demand pricing???

You do the math!

Community!

I uploaded a video on Youtube the other day about the aftermath of our recent blizzard.  In that video, I talked about the necessity of community in a post SHTF. world.  I was so utterly amazed at how the little town that I live in, came together, pitching in with shovels in hand, and every farm tractor for miles around, coming to the rescue of their neighbors.  I had cleared our own driveway well enough for our little four wheel drive "Tracker" to get in and out, but it was "Re-plowed" at least six times by our neighbors that day.  This is the kind of "Pitching in", that will be necessary for both a community, and the individuals that live within it to survive the coming uncertain future.  You run across so many folks who act as if they are going to be able to run out into the woods, and live off of bear meat if the world collapses around them, that it's staggering.  The truth is that they will either starve, of freeze to death.  The concept of being self sustainable is a misnomer.  The task at hand too great, too overwhelming to imagine.  If the future does bring about an apocalyptic scenario, we will have to rely on our local community more than we can imagine.  We will also have to learn to be a contributer to our communities as well.  Some will have strong backs, some will have the skills necessary to provide for security, and some... Even the elderly, will provide a knowledge base of the ways that people got by "In the old days".

I happen to believe that if we are to suffer through a "Collapse", there is a greater than fifty, fifty chance that it will be more horrible than most folks can imagine.  I also believe that, again there is a greater than a fifty fifty chance, that the "Bad times", could last for a very, very long time.  We have to begin thinking about what the future is to look like, if Mankind is to survive (As well as our families).  It's pretty darn clear that our population has started to "Over run" the planet's capacity to support us.  I don't say this as a Tree Hugger, but as a realist.  We have to start thinking about localization of food production, and using resources on a more reasonable scale.

The only way to do that, to survive, to thrive, in the future that we are facing, is to rely on community.

Wake up call

I spent the day Sunday online with a few of my friends gleefully watching the events unfold in Egypt.  Mrs. GoatHollow , however was not amused!  She had a conversation with me yesterday morning, and to make a long story short... I got spanked.  I felt like a schoolboy who was caught red handed dipping Suzie's pig tail in the inkwell on my desk.  It seems, that although I've been talking the talk, I've forgotten to walk the walk for the last couple of weeks.  My "Preps" have stalled.  As Mrs. GoatHollow usually is... She was right.

I've always felt that the most important thing to make sure, where being a prepper is concerned, is to NEVER lose momentum.  Every small step we take, down that "Preparedness road", get's us closer to being ready.  It doesn't mean that we will accomplish great deeds every day.  It means that we accomplish SOMETHING every day.

When you lay down to go to sleep every night, You should be able to ask yourself the question.  "What did I do today to prepare?"  You should be able to honestly have an answer for that question.  It could be something as simple as having researched how to save a certain kind of seed from your garden, and how to re-plant it the next year.  It could be something as grand as having finished an outbuilding, that you are building.  What's important is that you did something!  Kept the momentum going.

It really does us no good to be "Awake", and not do anything about it.  As the winter doldrums set in, the sky's turn gray, and everything around us seems to be depressing, we have to force ourselves to keep our chin up, and be able to answer "The question" every night!